Multi-state Transition Models With Censoring in Vertical Transmission of Hiv
Abstract
In this study we have developed multistate models with censoring for vertical transmis-
sion of HIV, also refered to as mother to child transmission of HIV. We then use the
multistate models developed to derive the forward Kolmogorov di erential equations.
Depending on when transmission takes place, whether in-utero, intrapartum or postpar-
tum we introduced the aspect of censoring when estimating the transition intensities
from the transition probabilities. The study is in two parts, multi-state models for a
child born infected where we consider two and three state models and multistate mod-
els for a child born healthy where we have three, four and ve state models. In each
part we have solved the respective forward Kolmogorov di erential equations using the
generator matrix approach to obtain the transition probabilities which are in form of
transition intensities. Maximum likelihood estimation method is then used to estimate
the transition intensities. From the results we observe that the transition probabilities
are exponentialy distributed and that if the number of infected children are maintained
at a constant number then the transition intensities will approach zero as time increases.
Publisher
University of Nairobi
Subject
Multi-state Transition ModelsRights
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United StatesUsage Rights
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/us/Collections
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