Population Aging and Demographic Transition in Kenya

Abstract

Population aging has far reaching social, economic and political consequences and has led to a number of countries responding by increasing retirement age and investing heavily in pension schemes and social welfare for the aged. Despite the enormous implications of population aging, its measurement has received little attention in Kenya. This study demonstrates population aging in Kenya as a consequence of the demographic transition. Specifically, the study projects the population of Kenya to the year 2050, establishes an implied demographic transition scenario for Kenya, and establishes trends in population aging indicators. The study uses data drawn from the Kenya population and housing census reports and selected national surveys. Linear and non-linear regression models are used to generate age specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and age specific mortality rates (ASMRs). The matrix projection method is used to project the population by varying the elements of the projection matrix after five years. Past and projected crude birth rates (CBRs) and crude death rates (CDRs) are used to illustrate demographic transition underway in the country. Similarly, the aging indicators are computed and trends established from 1969 to 2050. The study establishes that the exponential model best fits Kenya’s ASFRs and ASMRs and is, therefore, used in the projection of these rates. The results show a decline in the natural rate of increase, indicating that Kenya is undergoing a demographic transition that is causing population aging. The total population is projected to increase from 42.88 million in 2015 to 72.74 million in 2050. The proportion of the population aged 65 years and above increases from 3.4 percent in 2015 to 8.1 percent in 2050, the median age increases from 19.04 years in 2015 to 27.53 years in 2050, while the aging index increases from 8.4 percent in 2015 to 29.3 percent in 2050.The study provides exponential model as an alternative to the traditional deterministic approach of obtaining TFRs and the use of Lee - Carter model for mortality projections. The study also relaxes the stability assumption by varying vital rates in the projection matrix after every five years. Additionally, the study shows prospects of population aging in Kenya. This calls for strengthening of existing programmes for the aged especially the monthly stipends, provision of universal healthcare, and pension expenditure to ensure their effectiveness and sustainability