Application of Ordinal Logistic Regression in Analyzing Students’ Performance at Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education Level in Kiambu County.

Abstract

Background: In the Kenyan education system (8-4-4 system), education progresses from pre-school to primary school to secondary school to tertiary education. Transition from one stage/ level to another is normally done after evaluation. Examinations are done at the end of each stage, National examinations are used to evaluate students for transition from one level to another Movement from primary level to secondary level is determined by good performance in the KCPE examination. The transition from secondary level to tertiary level is determined by good performance in the KCSE examination. These examinations are normally set, administered and evaluated by the Kenya National Examinations council (KNEC), a body set aside by the kenyan government for this purpose. Method: This study aimed at analyzing the overall performance of students at KCSE level in Kiambu county. The subjects used in the study included Mathematics, English, Swahili, Biology & Chemistry. The students gender and also the type/category of secondary school attended by the students were also considered. Ordinal logistic regression was the method used in analyzing the students performance in the year 2014 & 2015. Stratified random sampling technique was used, Kiambu county was stratified into the 12 different sub-counties then schools were selected randomly from them, Selection of schools was on the basis of school category.The samples for both the years comprised of approximately 24% of the entire population of candidates. Results & Conclusion: After analysis , the findings showed that the subjects that contributed the most to the students overall performance in both the years were Swahili & Biology. Mathematics did not contribute much. Students gender did significantly have an effect on the students overall grade. Keywords: Ordinal logistic regression, KCSE, National Schools, Extra county schools, County Schools, Sub County schools.