Leveraging HIV advancement in the light of Tuberculosis and Malaria usingSystem Dynamics

Abstract

Chronic illnesses to which HIV/AIDS, Malaria and TB is part, have had long term direct impact on the population, socialeconomic status as well as health in general. A lot of commitment by governments, non-governmental organizations, internationalorganizations etc. intended to reduce mortality of these disease. These intentions have not had proportionate returnon investment.This paper explores factors that influence the progression of HIV into AIDS with particular emphasis on opportunistic infectionsparticularly malaria and TB. Although there has been tools and techniques geared towards study of these diseases manyof them have been lacking systemic approach or fail to communicate to healthcare providers therefore rendering their effortsineffective.The authors argue that the range of infectiousness in the population specifically HIV/AIDS, incidence of new cases and itsprogression including interventions ideally reduce mortality rate leaving more people living with the disease and requiringmore care in the course of the disease. Living with the disease while still on medication awakens latent infections whichgo on unnoticed but the patient continues with the medication allowing these new infection to gain undue advantage of theimmune system. With models to leverage realistic predictions and awareness, simultaneously allowing care delivery canunveil hidden trends in the disease under consideration.The descriptive model allows systematic inquiry that yields explanations and provides healthcare providers with common decisionmaking platform. The authors further suggest triumvirate model of HIV, malaria and TB that utilizes system dynamicsin a resource limited setting.