Mandera County’s 2010- 2030 Population Projections and Their Implications on Human Resources for Health

Abstract

The core objective of this study was to project the population of Mandera County from 2010 and 2030 incorporating the county population dynamics and determine their implications on human resources for health. The study employed the cohort component method to project the population of Mandera County and the workforce-to-population ration method to project the required number of heath personnel from the year 2010 to 2030. The study used secondary data from the 2010 Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Analytical Reports on Population projections, fertility and nuptuality, mortality and migration. The study also used secondary data from the 2014 KDHS report. The base year for this study was 2010 and thus it the data derived from the 2010 analytical reports had been subjected to quality assessments to check on its accuracy and address any coverage or content errors. The study began by projecting Mandera County’s population dynamics whereby the total fertility rates and age-specific fertility rates of the county are projected to decline for the period of the projection. The TFR of Mandera County declined from 7.3 in 2010 to 3.1 in 2030. The projected under-five mortality rates also declined from a high of 155 in 2010 to a low of 26 in 2030. After projecting the population dynamics of the county, the study projected the entire population of the county using these dynamics as is required using the Cohort Component Method. This study found out that Mandera County’s population will increase from 642,733 in 2010 to 747,206 in 2015, to 830,714 in 2020 to 917,324 in 2025 and finally to 1,018,127 by 2030. Finally, after projecting the population of the county this study projected the required minimum and maximum number of health care personnel per a population of 10,000 people. The county will require a minimum of 1,719 health personnel in 2015, and a maximum 4,531 by 2030. The county also required a minimum of 7,113 nurses and 2,541 doctors in 2015 and a maximum of 9,693 nurses and 3,462 doctors by 2030. Based on these findings, there is need for more funding that will go towards hiring of health personnel as well as further research on population projections at the county level incorporating the population dynamics, which has not been done previously.