Using mathematical models to assess the influence of climate change on malaria risk

Abstract

In this study, a non-linear deterministic model is analysed to study the e ect of climate change on malaria incidence. Existence and uniqueness of solutions to the model is established and the existence of a globally stable disease free equilibrium whenever the reproduction number is less than unity. Numerical simulations are provided to con rm the theory of stability of endemic equilibrium. Our ndings showed that there is a relation between malaria incidences and climate change. Malaria cases are high when temperatures are around 31 - 33 C given the region receives enough rainfall to sustain development of the malaria vector. The ndings of this study con rm that by ignoring other factors, rainfall and mean monthly temperature have some contribution on the presence of malaria in some Kenyan highlands. x