Modeling time to sexual debut among Kenyan youths: The cox ph regression model approach

Abstract

One in every five persons in the world is considered a 'youth' aged 15 - 24 and almost 85% live in developing countries. Youth, particularly those in developing countries, face increased exposure to risks associated with early sexual initiation and unprotected sex. Early sexual debut among youths is associated with considerable negative health and development outcomes. This includes an association with increased lifetime prevalence of sexual partners, thereby increasing the risk exposure to sexually transmitted diseases, including HIY/AIDS, and pregnancy. Early sexual debut also increases the risk of HPY infection, due to cervical immaturity; and thus the risk of cervical cancer increases. Additionally, given the risk of pregnancy, early sexual initiators are less likely to complete their schooling thereby limiting their social and vocational futures. Therefore, an understanding of the trends of sexual debut and its correlates among the youths in Kenya is needed. This study sought to establish the probability of Kenyan youths remaining virgin beyond any given time after puberty using a Kaplan-Meier Survival curve. In addition, the study also established the correlates of sexual debut among the Kenyan youths using a Cox PH Regression Model. The study utilized the Kenya Demographic Health Survey Data for 2008 which was analyzed using SPSS version 18 and Stata version 11. The study found that 56.4% of males and 45.1 % of females reported having had their first sexual intercourse before the age of 18 years. The study established that sexual debut among the Kenyan' youths was significantly associated with gender. In addition, education level was found to be significantly associated with sexual initiation among the Kenyan youths. Further, youths in the middle and high income class were significantly more likely to delay sexual initiation compared with the youths in the low income class. Finally, female youths who were exposed to drugs were significantly more likely to initiate sexual intercourse when relatively young compared to female youths who were not exposed to drugs.