Population Projections of Women of Reproductive Age and Its Implication on Maternal Health Care Services in Kilifi County

Abstract

The main objective of the study was thus to project women of reproductive age in Kilifi County. The study used cohort component method to project the population of Kenya, coast province and Kilifi County. The main source of data was 2009 Kenya population and housing census. However, it was first assessed for any irregularities before use. To detect the degree accuracy the UN Accuracy Index was used. Since the UN accuracy index was inaccurate light smoothing was done for the population. From the 2009 census, Kilifi’s population was projected to 1,148,016 in 2010, 1,312,866 in 2015, 1,499,703 in 2020, 1,704,924 in 2025 and 1,889,895 in 2030. The study extracted women of reproductive age from these populations since they fall in the category of 15-49 years of age. Women of reproductive age would increase from 265,924 in 2010, to 318,078 in 2015, 377,867 in 2020, 440,421 in 2025 and 503,189 in 2030. Expectant women would also increase from 18,881 in 2010, to 22,584 in 2015, 26,829 in 2020, to 31,270 in 2025 and 35,726 in 2030. As the number of expectant women increases during the projection period so does the number of maternal beds and midwives required for maternal services. The number of midwives increases from 84 in 2010, 100 in 2015, 119 in 2020, 139 and 159 in 2025 and 2030 respectively. The study also found out that the number of beds would increase from 9 490 in 2010 to 11 782 in 2015, 14 112 in 2020, 16 448 in 2025 and 18 792 in 2030. The study recommends training and recruitment of more midwives and putting in place the required infrastructure needed for maternal services such as beds so at to meet the number of expectant women. It also recommends further research on the same but focus on the number of maternal wards and the number of health facilities that offer maternal services in Kilifi County. Further research on the same can be done in other counties with high infant and maternal mortality.