dc.description.abstract | Approximating the reduction level of STH infections is important in policy and decision
making nationally as well as globally.This is to ensure the control measures put in place
aligns withWHOrecommendation of infections control and intervention.There have been
various statistical models that have been utilised in studying infectious disease pattern toward
arriving in informed decisions regarding mitigation and interventionn measures.in
containing the spread of STH infections. However, majority of models have not given
e cient guidelines for predicting the future course of epidemic.Unlike the previous study
which experienced limitation due to lack of data of at least 200 individuals,this study aimed
to apply the Markov model with baseline data of at least 1500 individual who tested positive
of infections. This pre-post study was used the parasitological data collected during
a deworming programme for school going children aged 1-15 years conducted in Mwea
between 2004 and 2007 to calculate the prediction by calculating the transition probabilities
of di erent states of intensity following the rst year of annual MDA administration
and subsequent three years with treatment done once per year.
The initial study done in 2004 involved a baseline parasitological survey on STH and
schistosomiasis conducted in a total of 91 schools in Mwea.41 schools were selected as
follow up sample at multiple points each year for four years and examined for intestinal
helminths.The sample total was 3809 children who were then treated annually with albendazole
(400mg) and praziquantel with the number assumed to remain the same. Treatment
coverage between the years 2004 and 2009 was reported at approximately 40,000 school
going children in Mwea . During the years 2012-2013, treatment coverage for Mwea was
48,602, while in 2013-2014, the coverage was at 46,999 . The annual treatment of the school
going children has continued in all the schools in the area over the years, except for year
2010 and 2011 when the program stopped temporally.
Results:At baseline, the prevalence of any STH was 44.3% . Hookworm was at 12.1%, Ascaris
lumbricoides was at 2.2%, and Trichuris trichiura was at 1.4%. The male prevalence
was highest with 23.7% while that of women was at 20.6% at baseline. After treatment,
prevalence of STH decreased to 11.5%, (T. trichiura 0.3%,A. lumbricoides 0.6%, and hookworm
1.2%). In conclusion,we recommend the Markov chain model technique as viable
for modeling the transitional changes estimates of infections outcomes at discrete time
steps for future predictions. | en_US |