Teletraffic in the Kenyan Network-overview Assesment and Forecast

Abstract

A telecommunications network is an orderly, economical arrangement of telecommunications plant which allows the transmission of information by electrical means.

Two objectives of any network are_ to provide a good grade of service and to avail service to new users with minimal delay.

This thesis gives an overview of the Kenyan Telecommunications network and introduces its structure and the services it offers. By subdividing the network into smaller networks evolved around the major towns, the extent to which the net work objectives are met is assessed. A simple systematic method of obtaining forecasts on future service demands is presented.

The estimates of the offered grades of service show that 24% of the links connecting automatic switching systems offer worse grades of service .than the designed numerical value.

Further results show that for the automated network around the major towns in Kenya the demand for telecommunications service has not been met. A significant percentage of what is considered 'total demand' is contributed by waiting users. The fact that this unsatisfied demand figure tends to increase with time leads to the conclusion that demand forecasts may have not always been reliable.

The methods devised in this thesis would be useful for telecommunications organizations whose developing networks do not incorporate advanced network management facilities.