Climate Change and Violent Conflict: a Case Study of Puntland State of Somalia (2008-2020)

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between climate change and violent conflict in Puntland State of Somalia. Using qualitative research method, the study grapples with two core questions: What factors explain the nexus between climate change and violent conflict in Puntland state of Somalia? How does climate change-induced insecurity threats affect violent conflict in Puntland State of Somalia? The study converges Homer-Dixon’s environmental scarcity and violent conflict theory with elements of securitization theory to argue that an increase in population coupled with worsening livelihood conditions underpinned by a reduced resource pie, as well as intra-society and state-society distance decay resulting from state weakness and the proliferation of arms underpin the nexus between climate change and conflict. It equally notes that climate change weaknes the customary Xeer system that has always served as a fulcrum of stability. This, therefore, increases the historical conflicts among clans based on the competition for resources and land. Furthermore, the study finds that, climate change increases insecurity as clans compete for scarce resources. This in turn informs the securitization of the scarce resources by actors in an attempt to assure their survival. The study notes that, the use of traditional conflict resolution mechanisms at the onset of the conflict may prevent the intersection of the conflict with the existing politico-security dynamics in the region. This is particularly true as traditional institutions enjoy more conflict resolution skills as well as legitimacy than the state.