Integrating Climate Change and Adaptation Processes Into Hydropower Development in Sondu Miriu River Basin in Kenya Under Changing Climate
Abstract
The hydropower production from the two-existing run-of-river hydropower projects on the Sondu
Miriu river are vulnerable to rainfall variability and requires proper understanding of the climate
change trends and policies to support sustainable hydropower development and put in place strategies
for building resilience for the local communities. The four specific objectives included examining
climate change trends and their impacts on hydropower; examining the impacts of both the climate
change and the hydropower development projects on the livelihoods of the community living within
the basin; identifying appropriate and sustainable strategies for integrating climate change adaptation
into hydropower development; and finally reviewing and identifying appropriate policy options for
integrating climate change adaptation into hydropower development within the Sondu Miriu river
basin. The methodology involved analysis of downscaled climate data from Coordinated Regional
Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for the period from 1950 to 2100, gridded data from
Kenya Meteorological department for a period from 2007 to 2018, river flows data from Water
Resources Authority for a period from 2007 to 2018 and hydropower output data from KenGen for a
period from 2007 to 2018 to examine the climate change trends within the Sondu Miriu River basin
and impacts on hydrology and hydropower. Participatory methodologies involving administration of
questionnaires at household level and focus group discussions with the local leaders and actors were
applied to determine the impacts of climate change and the hydropower development on the
community livelihoods within the Sondu Miriu River basin. Review of existing climate change
adaptation strategies and policies were carried out to identify appropriate strategies and policy options
for integrating climate change adaptation in hydropower developments within the Sondu Miriu river
basin. The results indicated that maximum and minimum annual temperature increased by 0.7oC and
0.9oC respectively between 1950 and 2005. Temperatures are projected to increase by 1.890C and
1.850C for minimum and maximum temperatures respectively based on the Representative
Concentration Pathway of 4.5Wm-2 (RCP4.5) and by 4.670C and 4.470C for minimum and
maximum temperatures, respectively based on Concentration Pathway of 8.5Wm-2 (RCP8.5)
scenarios between 2006 and 2100 within the Sondu Miriu basin. Annual rainfall increased by 74.8 mm
between 1950 and 2005. This is projected to increase by 24.7 mm and 117.8 mm based on RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. For the period between 2007 and 2018, the observed maximum
increased by 50C while the minimum temperatures decreased by 10C. The rainfall decreased by
193.14mm while the mean daily river flows decreased by 0.3 m3/sec annually during the same period.
This resulted in the decrease of hydropower production by 8.3 GWh in Sondu Miriu Hydropower
project (HPP) between 2007 and 2018 while the production reduced by 14.18 GWh for Sang’oro HPP
between 2012 and 2018. The socioeconomic status of the basin indicates that majority of the
households (>59%) are poor and earn below 8 US dollars per day. The employment rate is extremely
low with only 22% in formal employment. About 49% of the households still use wood fuel and
charcoal as energy sources which is a threat to catchment conservation. Various climate change
adaptation actions have been outlined in the National and County adaptation plans with no clear
strategies for implementation within the basin. A framework for appropriate adaptation strategies is
therefore needed for implementing the outlined adaptation actions at local level within the basin. There
exist adequate policies at the national level and County Integrated Development Plans for integration
of climate change adaptation into hydropower development with Climate Change Act of 2016 creating
a linkage with other existing policies for effective policy support within the Sondu Miriu River basin.
Publisher
University of Nairobi
Rights
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United StatesUsage Rights
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/us/Collections
The following license files are associated with this item: