| dc.description.abstract | Kenya has had an increasing population growth rate. At independence, the population growth rate was estimated to be 3.2 percent per annum, which rose to 3.8 percent per annum as recorded in the Kenya Fertility Survey of 1977/78 and the population census of 1979. Presently, as per assessment of world population prospects in relation to estimates and projections by the United Nations in 1982, Page 248, the population growth rate stands at 4.1 percent per annum, thus making Kenya emerge as one of the countries in the world with the highest population growth rates.
The factors that directly influence or do affect positively the improvement of medical care and health services are those Government health policies which are geared to raising the general living standards of its people. Hence the first major objective of the study was to examine the effects of demographic parameters on-the cost of total health expenditure in Kenya from 1969 to 1982. An associated objective was to project such health expenditures to the turn of the century. The secondary problem dealt with determining which health variables are the best predictors or indicators to total health expenditures in relation to demographic variables, as well as trying to evaluate the possibilities for rapid health improvement. The demographic variables included the various indices of both fertility and mortality, whereas health variables were preventive medicine and promotive health, curative health measures, rural health services, health training, medical supplies and medical research. The economic variables were the total government expenditures, the Gross National product and the Gross Domestic product. For the purpose of this study, sources of data included raw data from the Ministry of health Annual reports and publications, Economic Surveys and Reviews, Statistical Abstracts, Registrar - General's Annual reports, United Nations publications and reports, World Bank reports, the Kenya Government development
plans of 1966 to 1970, 1970 - 1974, 1974 - 1978, 1978 - 1983, the Kenya fertility survey and the 1969 and 1979 population censuses.
Accordingly, chapter one deals with the general frame work of the study in detail, whereas chapter two deals with the methodology of the study as introduced in the first chapter. Chapter three deals with past, present and future health provision, status, policies, strategies and constraints in a historical format. Chapter Four deals with data analysis using the methods outlined and described in chapter two. Chapter five lays out the findings and summary of the study as well as giving possible solutions and recommediations. The methods used for analysis were the proportions,
correlations and regression analysis. After using these methods the results were that in the early 1970's decade 50 percent of the recurrent health expenditure was for personal emoluments which reduced to 40 percent in the 1980's. Similarly, more than 70 percent of the recurrent expenditure
on the average was allocated to the curative health services. The health sector received an increased share of the Gross National Product Within the study period. The average cost of
health expenditure per person steadily and rapidly increased from KSh.14.50 in 1969 to KSh.84.78 in 1982. The number of available hospital beds per person improved up to 1980 and detoriated thereafter. There was strong inter correlation between the independent variables themselves. Assuming the proportional increase of 4.5 percent per annum of health expenditure, the total health expenditure was projected to double by the year 2000. | en |
