Rural Roads Development and Marketed Agricultural Production in Kenya: a Time Series Analysis (1973-2021)

Abstract

The marketed agricultural production had been on the increase despite the decline in the number of kilometres of newly constructed rural roads. Thus, the objective of the study was to investigate the responsiveness of marketed agricultural production to rural roads development in Kenya. This study used secondary data from the Economic Surveys of the Kenyan Bureau of Statistics Economic Survey (KNBS). The analysis section employed a multiple regression model to estimate the effect of rural roads and other variables on the marketed agricultural production in Kenya. The study found a positive and significant relationship between rural roads development and marketed agricultural production (β=0.4171, p=0.000). In addition, there is a positive relationship between road maintenance and marketed agricultural production in Kenya (β=0.5644, p=0.000). The study found that agricultural inputs are positively and significantly related to marketed agricultural production (β=0.1162, p=0.0010). Expenditure on water supplies and related services exhibited a significant and positive relationship with marketed agricultural production (β= 0.2370, p=0.0070). Moreover, credit facilities showcased a significant positive relationship with marketed agricultural production (β=0.0900, p-value= 0.0490). Labour, measured in terms of agricultural wage payments, revealed a positive and insignificant effect on marketed agricultural production (β=0.0002, p=0.9100). The study concludes that expenditure on rural road construction, maintenance, and rehabilitation of all roads, agricultural inputs, expenditure on all water supplies, commercial loans, and agricultural wage payments play a significant role in Kenya's agricultural landscape and can account for 56.06% of the variations in marketed agricultural production in the country. The study recommends the expansion and maintenance of rural road networks. Infrastructure should be developed with an eye towards future needs, involve local communities, and minimize environmental disturbances. Furthermore, an all-encompassing approach is necessary for the consistent maintenance of rural roads, utilizing technology and international collaboration to ensure road longevity. There is a need for increased investments to ensure the consistent availability of crucial agricultural inputs. Strategies should be established to make these inputs affordable and accessible to all farmers. Training sessions can educate farmers on efficient utilization and sustainable agricultural methods. Improving water infrastructure in agricultural areas is vital. Investing in water conservation techniques, irrigation systems, and education programs about water efficiency can address challenges from changing rainfall patterns. Financial institutions are advised to offer better credit solutions tailored to farmers' needs, making loans more accessible and manageable. Lastly, the study highlights the need for a holistic approach in utilizing labour in agriculture. Training programs, mechanization, partnerships with educational institutions, and worker welfare programs can adapt the workforce to technological changes and boost productivity.