Impacts of Climate Variability on Livelihoods Sustainability in Kapsokwony Division, Mt. Elgon District, Kenya

Abstract

Mountains offer a special setting for identifying climate change and evaluating its effects. Long and short term climate variabilities continue to impact livelihoodsof small-holder farmersin the study area. People who live adjacent to Mount Elgon Forest Ecosystem are particularly susceptible to harsh climatic occurrences, as well as widespread poverty and marginalization. The present-day research was carried out in Kapsokwony Division, Mt. Elgon District, Kenya. The traditional adaptive technological techniques are insufficient to inadequately address the impacts of climate change on livelihoods. The main objective was the analysis of thirty (30) years historical climate data from 1986 - 2015 for trends, variability and villagers’ perceptions. The specific objectives were to evaluate the extent to which climate change and variability had impacted livelihoods in the research region; and to investigate coping and adaptation techniques utilized by households in response to various climate change and variability and make policy recommendations to manage future climate change impacts on livelihoods. The study was a collective collaboration approach among actors to generate transformation knowledge to increase adaptive capacity and enhance resilience. The study's climate secondary data of rainfall and temperature were acquired from Kitale Meteorological Station. Whereas another source of secondary data was from desktop analyses of public and unpublished materials (KMS), government statistics, non – government organizations and the internet. The primary data were collected by use of household survey questionnaires (HHs), Fouse Group Discussions (FGDs), Key Informant and Key In-depth interviews (KIIs). The household survey questionnaires on livelihoods were administered to heads of households to complement the required information. Both primary and secondary data were collected, coded and analysed using statistical and thematic techniques. Data coding entailed cleaning, manipulating and organization of the information into categories for easy computation and analysis. The findings were then displayed in graphs, charts, tables and presented in thematic or descriptive formants. Homogeneity test of climate weather checked for the completeness and consistency of rainfall and temperature data derived single mass curve plots with single, straight lines. The Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI) was used to analyse data for the wet and dry years. From the Student’s t- test analysis, the trend of the annual rainfall has been increasing generally as indicated by a slope of 9.96 but with a small Coefficient of Determination (R2) of 0.28. Linear regression analysis depicted that March, April, and May (MAM) trends have been declining, while the October, November and December (OND) trends have been increasing. The F-test was used to analyse climatic variability showed that rainfall patterns in the study area had become unpredictable and irregular. Results of annual surface temperature analysis indicate that has been increasing over the study period. Over 90% of the farmers polled said they had noticed changes in climate patterns as far back as 30 years. Overall, the findings suggest that climate change and variability are continuing. Climate impacts on livelihood vulnerabilities, land use, livestock, and economic trees, food security, income- generating activities, weather-related events, and the onset of climatic changes were examined, and it was discovered that climate has had a significant impact on livelihoods and socio-economic development. New transformation of knowledge, community empowerment, adaptive capacity, enhanced resilience, collaborative learning, livelihood diversification, participatory attitude, and behavioural change were all achieved as a result of the research project.. New adaptive techniques and increased resilience will aid in the reduction of poverty, improvement of people's livelihood well-being, and socio-economic growth were achieved. The research aimed at creating awareness, scaling up livelihood actions on climate change, reducing vulnerability and enhancing resilience to improve livelihoods and sustain socio-economic development. The new societal knowledge was used to elucidate long term robust policy recommendation, adaptive strategies and enhance climate resilience, help eliminate poverty levels, improve livelihoods and sustain social economic development.