Implementation of conflict early warning and early response: IGAD-CEWARN in Kenya

Abstract

The study examine implementation of conflict early warning and early response, The debate conflict prevention research is at present concerned with how to effectively bridge the gap between early warning and response to prevent the occurrence and escalation of violent conflict. Previous studies of CEW ARN have examined the overall causality of early warning and conflict prevention. Data was mainly be derived from secondary and primary sources. The data collection tools for the secondary data that was used was in-depth information gathering, and document analysis. For the primary data direct observation and open ended interviews were used. The study found that the analysis part of early warning involves the synthesis of background and current event information, the careful selection of indicator information, the examination of motivations and behaviours (to predict future directions), the assessment of capabilities (to carry out violence), the development of scenarios (to explore the possibilities for conflict escalation) and the determination of the most probable outcomes. One could turn to the 'fires of conflict' analogy to help identify structural, proximate and triggering factors. IGAD, in contrast, although also a region compromised by conflicts, has chosen a different approach. Due to the political and security situation IGAD was not in a position to develop a functioning and effective region-wide EWR concept. Early warning systems' for the prevention of violent conflict are 'latecomers' compared with their application in other fields.