Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Agro-ecological Zones and Agriculture in Kenya’s Lower Eastern Region

Abstract

Kenya’s vulnerability to climate variability and change has been compounded by dependence on rain-fed agriculture with constrained capacity to adapt and a rapidly growing population. Changes in Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) is a notable response to climate change, and it alters and influences cropping patterns. This research implements a replicable and scalable workflow for mapping past, present and future agro-ecologies to demonstrate a forward future-based thinking for climate adaptation and investments. Google Earth Engine and R Statistics were used for satellite and station data analysis. Fuzzy logic was used in normalizing the layers and in computing the AEZ. Change was evaluated at two checkpoints (1990-2005, 2006-2020). 2020 was used as the baseline year to evaluate change in the “near future” 2040 through two Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Interesting results emerge from the study, validating the hypothesis that the seasons and production potential is shifting. Lowland drylands (Kitui, Machakos, Makueni) experienced an increase in the Length of the Growing Period (LGP) ranging from 1 to 20 days in the short rains, but no change in the long rains. However, in future, the lowlands drylands experience an increasing LGP, surface runoff, creating potential for diversifying production systems with the capacity to grow more drought resistant crops and harvest water. Midland highland areas (Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, Meru) experienced a loss in LGP ranging from 1 to 10 days in most areas in both seasons and a reduction in agro-ecological potential. This change is already evident with the negative trend continuing. In these areas, resilience mechanisms will need to consider the expected future reduction in rain-fed agricultural potential and drought resilience focused diversification. The research proposes policy focusing on use of digital technologies, cloud computing and future projections. Keywords: Climate change, AEZ, Kenya, hotspots, geospatial, IPCC, agriculture, predictions.