Assessing the Vulnerability of Maasai Community and Their Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change and Variability: a Case Study of Kajiado County, Kenya

Abstract

This research provides an in-depth examination of the impacts of climate change on Maasai pastoralist communities in Kenya’s Kajiado County, making important contributions to understanding localized climate vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies. The mixed methods approach was used to analyze meteorological records from 1980-2018 and incorporated focus group discussions, household surveys, and key informant interviews from the selected villages across Kajiado East. The findings show increases in drought frequency and warming over the past four decades, with notable intra-regional differences in rainfall and temperature patterns. Northern areas experienced higher rainfall while southern areas faced intensifying aridity. Critically, the household vulnerability assessment provided nuanced insights into key demographic, socioeconomic, and livelihood factors driving differential susceptibility to climate change impacts among pastoralists. Herd composition, landholding size, and mobility frequency emerged as major determinants of vulnerability at the household level. This micro-scale analysis of intra-community vulnerability differences highlighted the need for tailored local adaptation efforts attuned to household-scale variations. The study also documented indigenous forecasting techniques and extant adaptation strategies employed by the Maasai community, including rainwater harvesting and livelihood diversification. However, findings revealed that unprecedented escalations in the frequency and severity of climate extremes are overpowering local coping capacities and outstripping the efficacy of traditional adaptation practices. This underscores the urgent need for supportive policies, improved climate information services, investments in resilient infrastructure, and risk reduction programs to bolster pastoralists’ adaptation efforts. Targeted interventions to enhance mobility options, facilitate herd diversification, expand climate information access, and reduce socioeconomic vulnerability drivers are imperative to strengthening pastoralist resilience. While providing an invaluable inductive case study, limitations of the research include the lack of health and socio-cultural vulnerability indicators. Further research could also benefit from analyzing gender dimensions and barriers to autonomous adaptation. Overall, this highly contextualized mixed-methods project provides a model of localized research on climate change to guide evidence-based resilience building in Arid and semi-arid region of Kenya.