Effect of Foreign Direct Real Estate Investments on Residential Land Prices in Seychelles

Abstract

Motivated by the anecdotal evidence overseas real estate buyers are driving up residential land prices in Seychelles, therefore, stretching residential land affordability on Seychellois. This research examines the effect of foreign direct real estate investors on RLPs over an eleven-year period spanning 2009 to 2020. Seychelles has recently experienced a boom in RLPs. Monthly time series data was obtained from the Central Bank of Seychelles, and the Ministry of Lands and Housing. The empirical results, obtained using the autoregressive distributed lag model, suggests there is no solid evidence that foreign direct real estate investors drive up prices that local people pay for residential land both in the short and long run. Estimation of the ARDL model also revealed that lending rates are positively associated with RLPs in the short-term. The study finds that RLP is cointegrated with FDREI, lending rates, exchange rates and inflation The policy implication of these results do not support knee-jerk policy responses to foreign direct real estate investments and that there are significant domestic drivers of RLPs in Seychelles over the period examined.