Determinants of Crime Rates in Kenya

Abstract

Crime poses a severe threat to the socioeconomic fabric of Kenya, with alarming increases in reported cases over recent years, including a staggering 14.3% rise in crime rates between 2020 and 2021 alone. This study sought to determine the determinants of crime rates in Kenya, focusing on the impact of income inequality, unemployment rates, educational attainment levels, GDP growth, inflation, and urbanization. The study was grounded in Rational Choice Theory, Economic Inequality Theory and Deterrence Theory. The study tested for cointegration and employed a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyze the long-run and short-run dynamics. The study found that income inequality has a positive but statistically insignificant relationship with crime rates in Kenya. Unemployment showed a positive and significant relationship, while educational attainment demonstrated a negative but insignificant relationship with crime rates. GDP per capita growth exhibited a negative and statistically significant relationship with crime rates. Inflation showed a slight positive but insignificant relationship, and urban population growth had a negligible positive and insignificant relationship with crime rates. The study concluded that there is a relationship between the determinants and crime rates in Kenya, with long-run equilibrium relationships suggested by the significant Error Correction Term. However, there was a lack of statistically significant effects for most variables, except for unemployment and GDP growth, in both the long-run and short-run. The study recommended that the Kenyan government focus on policies promoting overall economic growth, address income inequality, unemployment, and educational attainment as part of a comprehensive approach to social and economic development, and pay attention to urban development policies to reduce crime rates