Distribution of Endangered Raptors in Relation to Climate Change Scenarios and Overhead Power Line Risks in Kenya

Abstract

Many raptor species face threats such as electrocution, collisions, and habitat fragmentation, and their distribution patterns remain poorly understood. However, climate change also poses a significant threat to global biodiversity, affecting numerous species worldwide including raptors. Raptors are particularly important for studying the effects of climate change due to their widespread distribution, ecological significance, and potential role as flagship species. Understanding the current and future distribution of these species is essential for effective conservation strategies. Leveraging species distribution models and occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, this study evaluated suitable habitats for four endangered raptor species in Kenya: the Martial eagle, Secretarybird, Bateleur, and Steppe Eagle. The study considered two climate change scenarios for the period 2020-2040. Results indicate that raptor distribution in Kenya is concentrated in the south-western region, extending into the central region, with precipitation during the warmest quarter influencing the Steppe Eagle and Secretarybird, mean temperature during the driest quarter affecting the Martial eagle, and precipitation during the coldest quarter primarily influencing the Bateleur. When projecting models into climate change scenarios, all species except the Bateleur exhibited a negative range shift, indicating potential adverse impacts of climate change. In parallel, developing countries like Kenya are witnessing rapid expansion of electrical infrastructure to meet increasing energy demands, prompting a critical need to assess potential impacts on avian biodiversity. Through an integrated approach, this study assessed electrocution and collision risk hotspots in Kenya, identifying raptor species highly susceptible to these risks. Meru and Kiambu counties emerged as high-risk areas, highlighting the overlap between high-risk buffer zones and areas with high raptor species distribution. However, existing policies related to wildlife conservation, climate change, and energy lack acknowledgment of threats posed by power lines and other man-made infrastructure, indicating a significant policy gap. Addressing these gaps is crucial for effective wildlife conservation and sustainable development efforts. The need for greater integration of wildlife conservation considerations into energy and infrastructure planning processes is emphasized to mitigate adverse impacts on avian species and their habitats.