Couples Educational Pairing and Fertilty Decline in Kenya: Analysis of Decomposed Cohort Fertility Rates

Abstract

Kenya’s fertility rate has declined from 8.0 in 1979 to 3.4 in 2019. This fertility decline has been explained by multiple socioeconomic transformation that has occurred over the same period of time. Education has played a significant role in this fertility decline. This research project estimates Cohort Fertility Rates for women in union between the 2009 and 2019 intercensal period. The Cohort Fertility Rates are estimated by different combination of women’s and men’s level of education and a determination is made to establish what proportions of decline in CFR due to education are explained by changes in couples educational pairing. The study also establishes trends in assortative mating profiles during the intercensal period of 2009 to 2019. The study decomposes the differences in CFRs between younger and older cohorts using Das Gupta’ decomposition of two rates. This method separates the changes in CFR due to composition of educational pairing and rate effects. The study found that overall CFR during the intercensal period dropped by 0.5 amongst couples in union whose women were of reproductive age. In the low education category for couples the CFR dropped at a slightly higher rate of 0.6 women. The medium and high education categories for these couples recorded a drop in CFR of 0.05 and 0.7 respectively. Analysis by age cohorts show that CFR amongst couples in union amongst whom the women are aged 15-49 rose by a rate of 0.3 contrary to overall decline recorded in other age groups. The study concludes that changes in composition of educational pairing explain about 75% of the CFR decline attributed to changes in education. The study makes a contribution to demographic studies in employing alternative methodologies of assessing couples’ educational attainments contribution to fertility decline using census data in Kenya.