GIS Simulation of Settlement and Urban Expansion in the Kitengela Wildlife Dispersal Area

Abstract

Over the years settlement within the Kitengela Wildlife Dispersal Area, hereafter referred to as KWDA has increased with high numbers of people continuously moving into and settling in the area. This area has therefore continued to witness both local and foreign influence with immigrants bringing with them foreign practices such as agriculture, quarrying and constructions of new settlements to an area that has largely been utilised by livestock and wildlife utilisation. This study attempted to utilise spatial statistics, remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) to examine some of these forces of land use change particularly, agriculture, settlement and urban expansion in the KWDA by examining the effects of the biophysical characteristics of the area. The study aimed at identifying areas where land use change had taken place using satellite imagery and linking these to significant biophysical variables thought to influence these changes. These variables were then used in a model to predict future expansion of settlement and urban centres together. Results indicated that the occurrence of settlement and agricultural activities in this area were driven mainly by proximity to certain infrastructural facilities such as roads, man made water sources and towns and that areas near such facilities were most likely to be converted either to agriculture or settlement areas away from utilisation by livestock and wildlife which are the current practices. The study concluded that with the rapid increase of human settlement coupled by foreign economic activities, the KWDA, which is a life line to the Nairobi national park, providing a dispersal area for wildlife during the wet season is likely to be converted to either settlement or agriculture with disastrous effects to the park unless urgent measures are taken to curb this situation. Some of the recommendations include better incentives for conservation efforts, proper legislation and wildlife corridor protection.