Conflict early warning and early response mechanisms in the I.G.A.D.sub-region: an analysis of the Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict, 1996-2000

Abstract

The impetus of this study emanated from the quest to shift the focus from reactive management of conflict to proactive prevention of conflict. This shift lays emphasis on the significance of sub-regional organisations in conflict early warning and early response. This is because these organizations are familiar with regional conflicts and their proximity to conflict theatre enhances layered response to conflict. The study reviewed relevant secondary data on conflict early warning and based its analysis on the Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict (1996-2000) as a case study. The study builds on the theoretical discourses on conflict early warning and early response, and delves into whether the existence of early warning would have impaired or enhanced transformation of Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict. Indicators of potential conflicts are highlighted and explicated. The overall objective of the study is to analyse the role of early warning and response mechanisms in the prevention and management of conflict. The study observes that conflict preventive strategies are predicated on conflict information and structured on conflict cycle. The study underscores the challenges to conflict prevention and emphasizes the need to understand both structural and dynamic causes of conflict in designing conflict early warning systems. The centrality of information, resources, decision-making and political will in effecting early response to conflict is observed. The study concludes by recommending areas where further research is needed to enhance effective conflict prevention.