Intercensal net migration in Kenya: Application of the national growth rate method

Abstract

This study is an attempt to identify the rate, pattern and direction of intercensal net migration in Kenya for the decades 1969-1979 and 1979-1989. Regional net migration rates have been estimated through the national growth rate method. The study finds out that National Growth Rate method can be used to compute migration rate, not only in a stable population, but also an unstable population, because it is capable of computing migration rates by ages. The assumption that National Growth Rate (NGR) can only be used to compute migration rate of the total population is null and void. This analogy has been arrived at when the results found in this study were almost similar to those found by Wakajummah (1986) when he used Age Specific Growth Rate method, which in its assumption considers the unstable population.It is also noted in the study that the pattern of migration for the period 1969-1979 is almost similar to that of 1979-1989. It can therefore be hypothesised that the push and pull factors of migration have remained almost uniform for the period 1969-1989.The migration process has been noted to be selective by age and sex. For example, the males have been realised to migrate more than the females. However, the peak period of migration is between the age 20-39 years; with return migration noted at the age 50 years and above. Regionally, Nyanza province, has been found to dominate in out-migration more than the other provinces, particularly at the labour force ages; that is, age 20-49 years.