Estimation of Kenyas nuptiality levels. Trends, Patterns and differentials

Abstract

This study analyzes indirect methods of estimating nuptiality, applies these methods in estimating nuptiality levels in Kenya, both al national and at district level and compares the results obtained by these different indirect methods of nuptialityestimation. The methods examined are: Hajnal's . Singulate mean age of marriage (SMAM), Nuptiality table techniques, and Vande Walle's stable population method. The study also analyzes nuptiality differentials in Kenya. The relationship between age at marriage and eight variables are examined. Education, especially female education, sex ratio and percentage of population living in urban areas are the strongest predictot-s of age at marriage and account.s fOI' about 52%of the total variance. Other factors that accounted for lesser fractions of variability are: Proportion of females in gainful employment, percentage of females in urban areas , per capita potential high agricultural land, percentage of female adult literate, and total fertility rate (TFR). The eight variables combined account for a maximum of 58%of the variance. -With regard to indirect method of nupliality estimation, all the three methods produce comparable results at national level, with nuptiality table technique tending lo give exaggerated values 'of mean age at marriage compared to SM ity table technique produced reasonable and comparable results, while Van de Walle's produced good results in some districts but totally failed to yield reasonable result in some other districts, particularly those districts that are migration prone. All the three methods have been used to estimate nuptiality timing since 1962 to 1979 at national level. The results show that nuptiality timing has been increasing; particularly those for females exhibit a definite increasing trend. The Kenya's age pattern of marriage seems to be characterized by higher age specific marriage rates with a lower' proportions of people who never marry