Infant and child mortality as a determinant of fertility preference: evidence from the Kenya demographic and health survey 1993

Abstract

The general objective of this study was to assess the effect of infant/child on fertility preference with the specific objectives being to investigate the association between infant and child mortality with specific socio -economic, demographic and proximate determinants of fertility being used as controlled factors for the effect of infant and child mortality on fertility preference. The study utilized data from the 1993 Kenya demographic and health survey, the KDHS(1993)had a sample size of 7952 cases of which the study used a sample of 5942 representing women who had given birth in the last 5 years prior to the survey. To achieve these objectives several hypotheses to determine the association between infant and child mortality with fertility was tested using cross tabulation and multiple regression analysis. The hypothesis were tested within a conceptual framework which put into consideration that infant and child mortality and fertility are both influenced by socio -economic and demographic factors with the factors influencing fertility through proximate determinants. To operationalize the conceptual framework, ideal number of children was taken as the dependent variable and also as the measure of fertility preference while effect of infant/ child mortality on fertility was undertaken while controlling for selected socio -economic, demographic and proximate variables which were included in the framework. Results of the analysis are presented and discussed in chapter 4. The results from the chi- square analysis showed that a number of the selected socio - economic, demographic and proximate factors had an association with child/ children survival status while the results obtained from the multiple regression analysis indicate that infant / child deaths were associated with a higher number of desired births. The analysis which were conducted on parity by parity basis indicate that women in the lower parity and had experienced a child death desired more children than their counterparts who belonged to the higher parities and had also lost a child or children. The main conclusion which is drawn from the analysis is that infant and child mortality is related to increased/higher fertility confirming a higher number of desired births (on average 0.78 more children when the respondent had lost a child). This was 0.28 higher than in the previous study though a further research on the association is required before concrete conclusion can be derived. On the basis of the findings, child survival programmes should be emphasized and integrated with the family planning programmes if the fertility levels are to be lowered to the ideal and desired levels.