Determinants of Fertility Preferences in Kenya: a Study Based on the 1998 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey Data

Abstract

The subject of fertility preferences is of fundamental importance for population policy and also for family planning programs. Actual fertility primarily reflects desired fertility because it is assumed that couples are roughly able to achieve their fertility targets. Despite this, only minimal attention from researchers has been dedicated to the study of fertility preference. Even then, several important factors determining fertility preferences have been left out. This study seeks to bridge the gap of knowledge on determinants of fertility preferences. The main objective of the study is to examine the effect of some selected study factors on fertility preferences while controlling for the effect of other factors also known to have an effect on fertility preferences. The study variables considered in this study include marriage type, number of unions, child loss experience, exposure to mass media, gender mix of living children and knowledge of modern family planning methods. Control factors that are included in the study are age, education level, religion, region of residence, work status of the woman, place of residence and ethnicity. Desire for more children and preferred waiting time were used in the study to designate the dependent variable. The study population consisted of 4887 Kenyan women of childbearing ages (15-49) covered in the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey of 1998r The techniques of Data presentation and analysis that were employed included use of frequency tables, cross tabulation and logistic regression analysis. Descriptive statistics indicated that majority of the women did not desire any more children. Cross tabulation results indicated that desire for more children is significantly associated with all the factors included in the study with the exception of number of unions. Logistic regression was used to regress desire for more children on the socio- demographic, socio-economic, and socio-cultural and exposure factors. -..,The results of logistic regression show that controlling for education, age, work status of the respondent, religious affiliation, ethnic background, place and VB region of residence, only two of the study variables were found to be significant in explaining differences in fertility preferences. These were the number of unions, and gender mix of living children. Before controlling for these factors, all other factors apart from number of unions were found to be significant in explaining differences in fertility preferences of Kenyan women. These included the type of marriage, knowledge of modem family planning methods, gender mix of living children, child loss experience and exposure to mass media. The study also found that those factors that are responsible for differences in the desire for more children are also important determinants of preferred waiting time to the next birth .The study found that gender mix of living children and number of unions are important determinants of preferred waiting time. In addition the type of marriage was also found to be important. These factors were found to be important determinants of desire for more children revealing a consistency between the two measures of fertility preferences. The major conclusion that was derived from the results of this study was that all the study variables included in the study are important determinants of fertility preference. However the study found that gender mix of living children an.d.•. the number of unions are the most important factors determining fertility preference controlling for all other factors included as controls in the study. Other factors found to be important determinants of fertility preference included age and ethnicity. On the basis of these results and conclusions, recommendations have been made for policy as well as for research. The findings indicated that gender preference is evident in Kenya either in favour of an equal mix ofliving children or better still in favour of sons. This kind of preference has contributed to high fertility preferences especially among women with more daughters. This scenario demands that more efforts be made to address the existing gender disparities so as to fully integrate gender concerns into the development process. This kind of a shift can occur within a milieu of Vlll broad social, economic and cultural change involving changes in the role of women education, economic structure, family structure and more particularly changes in social and cultiral beliefs and traits that favor men hence disadvantaging women leading to a low preference for girls among parents. The study also found that marital instability is a major contributory factor to higher fertility preferences. Policy measures should be geared towards promotion of marital stability and support to the family as the basic unit of the society.