Analysing the temporal characteristics of extreme temperature events over asals and the coastal regions of Kenya as an indicator of climate change

Abstract

The issue of climate change is of global concern. Extreme climatic events have become particularly of interest to most governments around the world. This concern has been increasingly reflected in media reports over the last 5 years. This study examines the temporal pattern of surface temperatures and of the frequency of extreme temperature events over the ASALs and the coastal region in Kenya. The ASALs and the coastal regions were chosen because they are the most vulnerable areas to climate change. It also seeks to establish whether there is any significant relationship between the mean temperatures and the extreme temperature events. Data from nine stations were used. The data comprised daily minimum and maximum temperatures for the period of ranging from 1967-2005.The data were tested for homogeneity using the short-cut Bartlett Test and the Cumulative Mass Curve. The data from all the stations were found to be homogeneous. The sequential version of the Mann-kendall test was used to investigate any abrupt changes in the frequency of the extreme temperature events. Regression analysis was used to delineate the magnitude of trends in the minimum and maximum temperature time series for each station. Simple correlation coefficients were used to investigate the degree of relationship between the mean temperatures and the extreme temperature events. Results showed that there has been significant warming over the study area and this has been exhibited in the decrease of the frequency of cold days over most of the station, decrease of cool days over a few station, increase of hot days over some stations and increase of warm nights over some stations. The established significant warming trends pose a serious challenge to the economy particularly the agricultural and the energy sector of the country since the ,major economy drivers of the country are weather dependant. In particular, the effects of decreased frequency of cold days and increased frequency of hot days would have serious implications on the agricultural output and increase in vector borne diseases. Therefore the findings need to be incorporated in the future planning of the country.