Forecasting voluntary cash donations in private homes for the needy children:The case of Thomas Barnardo children's home, Nairobi

Abstract

Private homes for the needy children receive 90% of their income by way of voluntary cash donations from. individuals and organizations. This huge part of their income, by its very nature is highly unpredictable and makes the homes' planning activities extremely difficult. The objective of this study was to develop a simple time-series forecasting model for the Thomas Barnardo children's home which could be used to forecast its monthly voluntary donations. It is hoped that such a model could easily be adopted by other children's homes and also the Children's Department of the Ministry of Horne affairs for advisory purposes. The study found that monthly voluntary donations exhibited some predictable pattern from month to month, with some months consistently having high donations while others have low donations. The trend of voluntary donations over the years was found to exhibit a general linear upward direction. using the findings of the study, a forecasting model was developed. The model that was developed utilized monthly seasonal indices and the linear trend equation to forecast monthly voluntary donations. The model was tested for its suitability in forecasting and was found to be suitable.