Estimation and projection of HIV/AIDs situation in Kenya

Abstract

Estimation and projection of the current and future health status of populations has become an essential tool for governments and other organizations involved in the planning and delivery of health programmes. Various models have been proposed to study the projection of Human Immunodeficiency Virus(HIV) /Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) epidemic. In this study statistical approaches; mainly curve fitting (logistic linear and quadratic exponential) have been used to make short-term predictions about the current and future AIDS epidemic in Kenya. Also the mathematical background for back-calculation procedures has been explained. This method estimates HIV incidences. The observed reported data on the annual incidences of AIDS diagnoses for Kenya are used to determine trend patterns of the expected AIDS epidemic. Trend estimates of the pandemic are necessary for giving measures of disease control and intervention programmes.