The impact of HIV/AIDs on retention rates of an education system

Abstract

In the introductory note of the project, chapter 1,we have covered the measure of HIV/AIDS in the general public and school system in Kenya. Here we have made the point clear that the measure of HIV/AIDS in schools is really wanting. This necessarily has shaped the approach of handling this project. Consequently, in this chapter, we highlight the fact that sensitivity analysis is the way forward for investigating the impact of HIV/AIDS in schools for the current situation whereby relevant data on this endeavour are practically impossible to realize. This is because records of HIV/AIDS related withdrawals from public and private secondary schools are still treated with as stringent confidentiality as stipulated in the legal aspects of allcategories of professional medical practice (especially in clinical trials). Thus the point in this project is not to measure the absolute impact of HIV/AIDS on education systems, but to determine what the impacts can be on "the present transition rates in schools if HIV/AIDS prevalence continues to soar with time. It is also assumed that, at a dynamic equilibrium of the interacting forces involved, the HIV/AIDS prevalence rates are proportional to the withdrawal rates. Thus, at this state of balance, our models have been assumed correctly applicable. It should therefore not be construed that we worked with inhomogeneous time-dependent Markovian models. Now it must be emphasized that simulation has been used because data needed to accomplish the direct evaluation of the present situation are enshrouded with many confounding factors such as poverty related withdrawals from school. Worse still, a lot of data is impossible to sift from data collected in the environment of multiple confounders. Frustratingly, even the confounded data are not available or not even in a position to be available in the first place. As we reiterated in various scenarios in the text, the main stumbling block on the way of availability of data is the behaviour of medics in a manner that saves the HIV/AIDS victims from stigmatization and social marginalization by concealing not only their identity but also data about them. Thus the choice of the design of the project has necessarily taken care of these difficulties by treating the initial conditions as the basis of reference or comparison with simulated rates. We have also dealt thoroughly with the objectives, statement of the problem and significant of the study in chapter 1. In chapter 2, we review the world of literature .relevant to the sphere of the study. This review revolves around Markovian models and their applications and the morbidity of HIV/AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa among the youth. In this literature review, we are highly appreciative of the work already covered on Markovian models since our project only adds to the existence of their numerous branches of application.