Projected primary school population of Nairobi province: 1980 - 2000

Abstract

This thesis has mainly dealt with the projection of population in Nairobi Province by division. It also dealt with population projection of primarily school age population mainly of ages (6 - 13 years), this projection was also done by division, though an attempt was also done to project by wards, the thesis has examined the future primary school age population and its implication. It is most likely to have on the education and its provision in Nairobi Province, namely:- Enrolment and wastages. The techniques used for projection is the intercensal growth rate. The data used is the 1969 and 1979 censuses. The intercensal growth rate is fitted into an exponential growth model, and since the primary school age population is required and the census data is given in five years age group, it becomes necessary to use interpolation coefficients based on the sprague multipliers to break the five year age group in single years (6 - 13 years). For the enrolment and wastage, the enrolment ratio method and a cohort survival analysis is done. With the present mortality, fertility and migration trends the primary school population will be increasing fast into the year 2000.