Intercensal net migration in Kenya district level analysis

Abstract

Using 1969 and 1979 census data sets, this study estimates inter-censal age-specific net migration rates for Kenya using a non-stable population model - the Age Specific Growth Rate Technique - developed by Preston and Coale. The result portrays considerable regional variations in age specific net migration rates. Major urban areas are found to register net gains in the population of young adults aged between 10 and 24 years, while most of the rural districts tend to experience net out-flow of population in similar age brackets . Major urban districts are also found to experience net out-flow of children population aged between 5 and 9 years. The study further indicates that most of the former non-scheduled districts and other re-settlement districts in Kenya tend to register population net gains in all age groups. Similar phenomenon is observable in most districts along Kenya's borders with neighbouring countries. Most of the major cash crop-producing districts are found to gain population of children aged between 10 and 14 years. In view of these findings, the last part of this thesis makes conclusions and puts forth recommendations that are pertinent to policy making. These include,among others, the intensification of integrated approach to regional development; less emphasis on capital-intensive industries; expansion of agro-industrial establishments in the major out-migration districts and control of population movements along the borders. The existing gaps of knowledge in the field of study are also highlighted in this section.