Estimation of fertility levels and differentials in Kenya: an application of relational gompertz and coale-trussell models.

Abstract

The objective of this Thesis is two-fold. The first is to derive new estimates of the levels and differentials of fertility for Kenya: both at National, Provincial and district levels, through the application of the Coale-Trussell and the Gompertz relational models to data drawn f~om the 1969 and 1979 censuses. The second is to compare the resulting estimates for the districts in order to detect similarities or differences in total fertility. The synthetic cohort technique was used to adjust for the fertility fluctuations between the two censuses, at the National level only. Educational attainment, Place of residence and Marital status were the fertility differentials employed in this Thesis. The secondary education was found to be necessary for the reduction of fertility in Kenya. However, the difference between the Urban and the Rural fertility was not significant. It was also found out that both the non-marital and marital fertilities were significant in Kenya. The estimation of fertility differentials for North-Eastern Province and other nomadic tribes in Kenya, was not done due to the very high degree of erroneous data collected from these areas. Finally, settlement schemed districts were found to have high fertility levels.