Application of the Markov chain model in estimation of stocks and flows of teachers in schools

Abstract

Statisticians and Policy analysts have used a wide variety of Statistical techniques in manpower planning. These range from relatively simple techniques such as statistical ratios to highly complex methods such as the nonparametric techniques and in particular Markov process. Human resource personnel when estimating the numbers of people required in an organization have used one or more of the following ways or techniques: by exercising managerial judgment, by using work-study techniques, and by using statistical techniques. Bowey (1974) noted that manpower planning is not a clearly defined practice. To some it is a statistical technique in which rates of wastage and other rates are incorporated into a computerized model, and predictions made about required rates of recruitment. But social scientists have pointed out that trends in statistics are only the result of social processes. The use of statistical techniques in human resource planning is largely the concern of research organizations and government statisticians. However, many organizations make use of analyses of labour turnover, labour stability and similar ratios that in most cases have resulted in either high wage bill because of over staffing or underemployment of the workforce. It is now about time that Human Resource personnel should employ some of the scientific techniques in manpower planning for a rational approach to the demand and supply of labour to meet the organizations' objectives. Most researchers would also concur with the fact that people are the most volatile resource available to organizations, and they are recruited, employed and rewarded against a complex background of economic and social forces, which make firm decisions problematic for human resource planning