Systematic risk and Un-Systematic risk on financial firms quoted on the Nairobi Stock Exchange
Abstract
The primary motive for buying a stock is to sell it at a subsequently higher price.
In many cases, dividends will also be expected. Dividends and price changes are
the principal ingredients in what investors regard as return and yield.
If an investor had impeccable information and insight about dividends and stock
prices over subsequent periods, he would be well on his way to great riches. But
the real world of investing is full of political, economic, social and other forces
that we do not understand sufficiently to permit us to predict anything with
absolute certainty. Forces intermix and flow at cross currents. Nothing is static,
creating an element of risk.
The risk involved has therefore been categorised into two, Systematic risk and
unsystematic risk.
This study aims at looking for ways of eliminating risk while investing at the NSE.
We intend to use linear regression to determine the value of Beta, which in
effect gives a measure of the systematic risk.
A well diversified portfolio completely eLimi:;lates-unsystematic risk.
The study also aims at comparing the Capital Asset Pricing Model and The Market
Model for consistency on establishing the Expected Returns Estimates. -/It
was noted .that using the four and a half year data gives results that are
statistically significant for the overall Stock Market. The stocks having high beta
values also seem to have a high value of the correlation coefficient between the
individual stock and the market index.
A positive Beta value indicates that a change in the Market Return results to a
change in the same direction of the asset return. If we take the Market beta to
be equal to 1, then an asset ,with beta value of 1.3 will increase by a factor of
1.3 for every increase in the market return. A decrease in the Market Return
would also indicate a decrease in the asset return by the same factor, making it
a high risk asset to hold. .
The expected returns were estimated using Capital Asset Pricing Model AND also
the Market Model The figures obtained using Capital Asset Model were found to
be more consistent and linear as opposed to the Market Model
Citation
PGD- Actuarial ScienceSponsorhip
University of NairobiPublisher
School of Mathematics, University of Nairobi
Description
Postgraduate diploma in Atuarial Science