Kenya's population projections and their implication on labour force

Abstract

This research aimed at examining the effect of population growth on the supply of labour force in Kenya. Since this is a macro-level analysis only fertility and mortality schedules are considered. This is because the contribution of the emigrants and immigrants to the national labour force is negligible. The primary objective of the study was to project the labour force by age and sex and their differentials. Also the study aimed at providing indication of the number and characteristics of the workers who will be available for employment in Kenya. The study utilised the 1989 census data and the ILO activity rates. The projection was done in three stages. First population projections were prepared for the total population enumerated and graduated in 1989 census based on mortality and fertility assumptions. Life expectancies at birth for mortality assumptions were used with all causes 'of death including and not including aids. Fertility was assumed to decline at slow, medium and fast rates of 0.5,0.75 and 1.0 respectively from a total fertility rate of 5.5. The second stage was projecting age specific activity rates using direct extrapolation method. The third stage was the projection of labour force size broken down by age and sex. The total labour force is expected to rise from 10 million in 1990 to around 17 million in the year 2010 with all causes of death including Aids thereby showing an annual growth rate of about 3.5 percent. Males and females are expected to grow from around 6 million and 4 million to around 11 million and 6 million respectively The study also utilised a life table technique to study magnitude and characteristic of the entry into and separation from economically active population in 1989. An abridged v life-table was used for this study. The study revealed that females at age ten can expect to live 2 years longer than males but to work about 4 years less than males, but they anticipate 5 more years of non-working life than males. The replacement indices showed that males have lower replacement ratio than females but have higher replacement rate. It was found that male replacement rate and replacement ratio were 63.5 per 1000 male labour force and 201 respectively, while females were 59.8 per 1000 female labour force and 217 respectively.