The estimation of net inter-censal rural­ urban migration in Kenya

Abstract

This study attempts to estimate intercensal rural-urban migration in Kenya for the decade 1979-1989 using the Life Table Survival Ratio model. The study is based on urban population of the forty districts which had urban centres in 1979 but excludes Elgeyo Marakwet District which had no urban centre by the 1979 census report. These urban populations are referred to hereafter as forty urban districts. The 1979 and 1989 Population census data sets were utilized in this study.

The results show migration to urban centres to be highly dependent on age and portray considerable variations in sex-age specific net migration rates by urban place of destination. Most urban areas are found to experience net gains in the population of young adults within age bracket 20-29 years while registering notable net out-flows of population in older age bracket 50-59 years. Age bracket 10-19 also features prominently as the other crucial one in the accelerated internal rural-urban migration. The results further indicate that age 30 years, which according to this study defines the divide between urban in- and out-migration, marks the population age point that most likely constitute inter-urban movements. Though not dominant in Kenya these movements are on the increase as the results of this study indicate. The regional male and female in- and out-flow patterns are found to be similar. ", ' The main conclusions of this study are: sex and age provide a better insight

into the male vis-a-vis female migration; the nearly proportionate migration of males andfemales into urban areas is an-indication of exposure to equal opportunities for both sexes. The study's main recommendations for policy are : intensified generation of comprehensively integrated development strategies; reduction of regionalimbalances in development; according agriculture greater emphasis in the educational system so as to develop skills more suited to rural employment opportunities; and, migration control to form part of the overall national development strategies.