Trends in proximate determinants of fertility in Kenya 1998 - 2003

Abstract

The main purpose of this study was to examine the levels and trends of proximate determinants of fertility in Kenya nationally and by sub-groups. The study provided a critical review of the three principal proximate determinants of fertility: marnage, contraception and lactational infecundability and then estimated their fertility inhibiting effect using Bongaarts model. The contribution of each of the proximate determinants to fertility is studied in 1998 and 2003 nationally and for each subgroup. The subgroups considered in this study were the region of residence, place of residence and levels of education. After estimation of each intermediate fertility variable, estimates were then compared for 1998 and 2003 KDHS. .Comparison was also done with the previous findings of Kavali (1998) and Wakoli (1991). The study established that the 1998 model TFR of 4.96 was lower than 2003 modelTFR of 4.41. This was attributed to the high effects of marriage in 2003 than the same effects of marriage in 1998. The 1998 model TFR of 4.96 is higher than the reported DHS TFR of 4.7. WhiJe 2003 model TFR of 4.41 is lower than the reported TFR of 4.9. In the period 1998 to 2003, the finding was that fertility decline was not uniform in all subgroups. The study also suggested that in period 1993-1998 at the national level as well as among all the subgroups/Jactational infecundability was the lowest followed by the index of marriage and then contraception. This implies that in 1998 DES, the most important fertility-inhibiting index was lactation, followed by marriage and then contraception. The current study findings are compared to earlier studies by Kavali (1998 and Wakoli (1991) the trend was found to be' similar.. The findings from 2003 KDHS were quite different. The survey findings here showed that nationally, marriage was the most important \I fertility inhibiting variable followed by lactational infecundability and finally by contraception. This suggests a decline on the role of contraception. The analysis of the trends on the three proximate factors revealed that the reducing effect of the three intermediate variables continued declining. The reducing effect of contraception in 1998 to 2003 shows a complete decline with a drop in fertility reducing effect in all subgroups. This implies that this index did not reduce fertility in any subgroup. Instead, the variable contributed to fertility mcrease. The trend in fertility reducing effect of marriage shows an increase meaning that the index of marriage is becoming the most important fertility-inhibiting variable. Lactation shows an inconsistent trend in its fertility reducing effect. This might lead to a higher future population in Kenya if the trend continues. The findings of this study provide a basis for drawing some policy conclusions and making recommendations with the aim of achieving a further decline in fertility in Kenya. First it is recommended that family planning programrnes should be intensified in all regions since the index of contraception is the highest.with the least. fertility inhibiting effect in 1998 and 2003. Education should also be encouraged not only at primary level but also at higher levels of education since the study found out that marriage and contraception indicesdecreased with increase in the level of Education.