Estimation of Entropy in Kenya

Abstract

The study estimates entropy values in Kenya, which have been lacking. Risks in death are also estimated. The study uses the 1969 -79, 1979 -89 and 1989 -99 censuses data on expectation of'tife and survivorship. The derivation of entropy and methods of estimations of entropy and the risks of death are presented in chapter three and the results of entropy and the applications ff the entropy are presented in chapter four. The results show fluctuation of the entropy values for both males and females with males' values relatively higher than that of females' for the three inter-censal periods. The males' entropy levels for 1969-79 was 0:37, 1979-89 it was 0.302 and in 1989-99 it was 0.344. The corresponding entropy values for females were 0.309, 0.242 and 0.294. All these entropy values suggest considerable high risks of death at lower ages. The increasing values of entropy in 1989-99 from 1979-89 implies more sift of risks of death to younger ages The results on change ~ risk of death show significance changes in mortality associated will small changes in expectation of life. For males the reduction of risks of death of 35.5 percent in 1979-89 resulted in 10.8 percent increase in expectation of life. The increase Q.f..,Cisks of death of 25.6 percent in 1989-99 resulted in 8.8

percent reduction in expectation of life. For females, reduction of risks of death by 40.7 percent in 1979-89 resulted to 9.9 percent increase in expectation of life while increase of risks of death of 28.4 in 1989-99 resulted to 8.3 percent reduction in expectation of life. The results show also, that, females responded to mortality changes greater than males during 1979-89 and 1989-99 inter-censal periods. Chapter five presents summary conclusions and recommendations. Sift of more deaths towards younger ages in 1989-99 has reduced the expectation of life. We have recommended for programmes that will increase longevity of life. Further the results showed exceptionally high increase in risks of death for ages 15 - 34 for (males and 10 - 29 for females in 1989-99. We have therefore recommended for youth programmes to deal with age-specific risks of deaths. We have recommended for investigation of the effect of HIV/AIDS on Kenyan mortality curve. We have further recommended for invest.i.g" a.tion on the effect of reemerging diseases on the changes of risks of death in Kenya. We have also recommended for the investigation of regional disparities in mortality curve.