Estimating the contraceptive prevalence required to reach a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.5 by the year 2010 based on the TFR of 4.7 in the year 1998: application of John Bongaarts general model for target setting

Abstract

Fertility in Kenya is declining. This is evidenced by the 1989 and 1993 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) results. The recently released 1998 KDHS report indicates that this trend has continued into the late I990s which is good news for Kenya. The three KDHS reports show a profound change in Total Fertility Rate (TFR), dropping from 6.7 to 5.35 and to 4.7 in 1989, 1993 and 1998 respectively. After the 1993 KDHS results were published, the National Council for Population and Development (NCPD) set a National Population Policy in 1996 to help bring down the population further. To guide the implementation of this policy, some specific demographic targets were set on TFR with projections covering the period 1()q, to the vear 2n ~'; This study is focused on addressing the implication of these NCPD targets on contraceptive use. Most specifically, the objective is to estimate the Contraceptive Prevalence Rates (CPR), required to meet the targeted TFR, for the period 1998 to 2010 using John Bongaarts target setting model. The study begin with 1998 (year ofKDHS III) as base year and projects to the year 2010. Six most prevalent methods of contraceptive have been used in the method mix. These are: the Pill, Injectables, I.U.D., Condom, Sterilization and Traditional Methods. 1998 KDHS results in combination with 1996 NCPD .~arget8..on TFR have been utili sed according to data requirement specified by the model. Results of this study indicate that CPR has to rise rapidly to 74% in the year 2010 if the NCPD targets are to be realised. Limitations of this study are described in details in chapter one. This study suggests that Family Planning Programmes "ih Kenya intensify their activities to ensure that all eligible persons use family planning methods, potential demand for contraception is satisfied, and, that threats by contraceptive discontinuation rates are countered. A further suggestion for future study is that more research be carried out to incorporate changes in Q[~valence of some methods over others as well as new incoming methods. Other recommendations have been given in chapter five.