Modeling a Hierarchical System with Multiple Absorbing States

Abstract

This paper describes a Markov Chain transition model for predicting expected numbers of dropouts from various levels of the system. The levels of dropout include graduation after successful completion of all the courses offered, dropping out as a result of discontinuation and dropping out after performing well in grades prior to the final grade. Hence, a Markov Chain model with Multiple Absorbing States. The theory of Absorbing Markov Chains is used due to its adaptability to the representation of absorbing rates, transition rates and dropout rates for both successful and unsuccessful students, from an education system.