Determinant of fertility transition in Kenya: 2003-2008/9

Abstract

Kenya began to experience rapid fertility decline in the late 1980s. However, this decline in fertility stalled in the late 1990s. This study examined factors influencing transition to third and fourth births in Kenya for the period between 2003 and 2008/9. Data was obtained from the Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys of 2003 and 2008/9. Logistic regression model was the main method of data analysis. The results from the multivariate analysis showed that for the five year-period before KDHS 2008/9, the odds of transition to a third birth were significantly associated with education level, region of residence, religion, wealth index, ever use of contraception, age at the start of the interval and desire for additional children. On the other hand, for the five year period before KDHS 2003; transition to third birth was significantly influenced by education level, wealth index, ever use of contraception, age at the start of the interval and desire for an additional child. The results further showed that for the five year-period before the KDHS 2008/9 the odds of transition from third to a fourth birth was significantly influenced by education level, wealth index, age at the start of the interval , ever use of contraception and desire for an additional child. The results for the five year-period before KDHS 2003 showed that transition to fourth birth was significantly associated with region of residence, wealth index, age at the start of the interval, ever use of contraception and desire for another child. The major policy implications for these findings are the need to improve family planning services across the country so as address issues of unwanted and wanted fertility and hence lead to a decline in total fertility. Secondly, there is also need to improve the socio-economic conditions in the country. This means more efforts should be directed towards increasing the GDP per capita and increasing the proportion of women with secondary and above level of education. This is because Relative wealth and more education are strongly associated with lower fertility.