Forecasting standard one enrollment using Markov chain process:a case of Nakuru municipality

Abstract

Standard one enrolment present a recurring problem to both the parents and the authorities in the urban centres in Kenya. The study detailed in this report sought to represent the standard one enrolment in Nakuru Municipality as a Markovian Model and to use the Model to predict the demand for standard one for the future. Data on standard one enrolment from 1969 to 1988 and the demand for standard one places for 1988 were collected from the Municipal council records. Part of the data cOllected was used to build a Model of the system and part was used to validate the said Model. The model was then used with the 1989 demand to predict the demand for 1990, 1991 and 1992. Similar analysis was performed for the boys only, the girls only and both boys and girls data combined. The results of the study indicate that the demand for standard one will be greatest in the central zone, followed by the western and the eastern zones respectively. The boys demand for standard one places on the other hand will be greatest in the eastern zone followed by the central and then the western zones. The girls demand for standard one places will be greatest in the western zone followed

by the central zone and the eastern zone respectively. vJith such results, it is reconunended in this report for the Municipal council to concentrate their resources like administrative effort, time, money and personnel in the central zone, for administering in the area where demand will be greatest. It would also be appropriate to use the results given above as a resource allocation measure, so that resources are distributed equitably among the zones. Finally, the Model may be used to allocate most of the girls' exclusive facilities (like girls only schools) to the West and most of those exclusive to the boys (like boys only schools) to the East.