Budget Implementation in the Public Sector: the Case of the Office of the President

Abstract

This study sought to document the extent of implementation of the budget of the Office of the President, to assess the accuracy of the revenue estimates, as it is the main facilitator of budget implementation, and to develop a predictive model to be used in allocation of funds to the departments within the Office of the President. There are always questions asked about the extent of budget implementation by the Government in terms of utilizing the funds that has been allocated to it by Parliament and also the extent of adherence to the budgetary allocations. Budget implementation can only be effective if the above two factors are addressed and data collected for a period of eight years shows that there were many incidences of fiscal indiscipline and none adherence to budgetary allocations occasioning over-expenditures in six out of the eight years. The accuracy of revenue estimates is critical in budget implementation as these are the source of funds that are allocated to Ministries to enable them fund their programmes and activities. By computing the differences between the estimated revenues reported in the budget proposals and the actually collected revenues reported in the Final Accounts, it was possible to assess the accuracy of the revenue estimates. To develop a predictive model for the allocation of funds to departments within the Office of the President regression analysis was used with the departmental allocation as the dependent variable and actual revenue, gross domestic product, and external financing as independent variables. The model formed proved that it was possible to predict the allocation to the Office of the President, ~ however for some of the departmental allocations there was evidence that other factors contributed to the allocation which could not be provided for in the model.