Using Markov Chains to Estimate the Cost Effect of Free Primary Education in Kenya

Abstract

In the year 2003 the Kenyan government changed its education policy from cost sharing to free and compulsory primary education. As a result there was an influx of pupils into public primary schools. This policy therefore implied that the government took over all the costs incurred in educating an individual in the primary level of education. In this paper we apply the Markov chain model to estimate the number of new entrants who came in as a result of the new policy. The cost implication of the free primary education can then be assessed based on the new enrolment estimates.