Balancing Political and Religious Allegiance: Impact of Political Cross-Pressures on Kenya’s 2010 Constitutional Referendum

Abstract

How do voters behave when their preferred political parties and equally trusted social cleavages present them with diametrically opposed electoral choices? Do they adopt the choice offered by the party, or th at offered by th e social cleavage, or do they remain neutral ? Cross pressure studies typically evade these questions by assuming that political parties form on the basis of, and therefore reflect rather than compete with, dominant social cleavages. Yet, during Kenya’s 2010 national constitutional referendum, the mainstream churches entered into direct contest with major political parties by urging voters to oppose the proposed new constitution, against the latter’s campaig n for its adoption. This study focuses on the cross pressure generated by this referendum, and finds that such political cross pressures reduce the likelihood of political participation and promotes voter attitudinal ambivalence