The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Maize Production in Kenya

Abstract

This study investigates the economic impact of climate change on maize production in Kenya using the Ricardian approach. The general objective of the study is to conduct an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Kenya and make recommendations for strategies that could be adopted to mitigate the impact of climate change. The study uses climate data drawn from ARTES (African Rainfall and Evaluation system), soil data got from the Kenya Soil Survey conducted by the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute and household data obtained from the Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development. The Results of the study indicate that climate change has an adverse impact on maize production in Kenya. According to the regression results, increase in temperature between March and May and increase in precipitation between June and August will have a negative impact. Increase in precipitation between March and May will have a positive impact on maize production in Kenya. Overall, the study found that temperatures have a larger effect on maize production compared to precipitation. Predictions from nine out of the ten climate change scenarios used in the study indicate that maize output will decrease by up to 23% by year 2100. In line with the results, the study recommends that urgent measures be undertaken to mitigate the impact of climate change on maize production. These measures include: research and development of agricultural technologies, investment in irrigation infrastructure and dissemination of information to farmers on climate change and possible impacts.