Estimation of non-marital fertility contribution to the total fertility rate in Kenya

Abstract

The objective to estimate the contribution of non marital fertility rate on the total fertility rate in Kenya. The specific objectives were to determine the contribution of non marital fertility rate, to estimate extent of non marital fertility rate and to analyze differentials in the effect non marital fertility. The study utilized data from the KDHS 2003. The data was specific to women in their reproductive age which population was 8195 in total. The non marital fertility contribution was estimated using the model of proximate determinants developed by Bongaarts.

The model was modified to take into account the impact of childbearing and late entry into marriage. The total fertility rate (TFR) was estimated and the non marital fertility contribution which was estimated by the ratio Mo. The TFR was 5.1. The unmarried women contributed 17 % of the total fertility rate. Diffentials in-fertility are identified. Generally, fertility is lowest in urban areas and higher in rural areas, although the urban areas non marital contribution is the highest.

Fertility is lower among women with secondary plus education and highest among those with no education. Women with secondary education in tum contribute highly on non-marital fertility. There also exist differentials in the regions with north Eastern province recording lowest contribution of non marital fertility while Central province had the highest.

The findings from this study show that no marital fertility increases the total fertility rate by 17 percent. The study utilized KDHS 2003; a further study could be done to estimate the trends in non marital fertility using data from the other KDHS conducted. From the study also shows differentials in non marital fertility with level of education, region and place of residence, a study looking at the differentials using data from other KDHS.